Tag

Stocks

Browsing

Why is Warren Buffett so rich and famous?

As I had mentioned in my previous article on stock investing, value investing means buying a stock at a good price in relation to its value as a company. The stock price of a company can be classified as either being undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued, and the concept of value investing means buying stocks that are considered to be undervalued

The philosophy behind this style of investing is used by the likes of Warren Buffet and several other professional investors, and involves a lot of financial research. I’m writing this article in the hopes of simplifying the steps of value investing for my beloved finance commoners. 

Warren Buffett
Take my tips, I’m rich.

1. Pick a good company

Firstly, you can never get any good value from a sh*t (excuse my language) company. While this seems obvious, people’s emotions or lack of research sometimes leads to the worst decisions. Amazon was $300 in 2015, and Gamestop was $300 in January. Both had the same stock price, however, Amazon was a growing and profitable company at the time, while Gamestop is currently struggling to compete with online competitors. 

By buying either stock at $300, your Amazon share would be worth $3,000 now, and your Gamestop share worth $180 (as of November 2021). I know the time horizons are quite different, but I hope you see what I’m trying to say here. Plus, would you ever see Warren Buffet investing on meme stocks?

“Don’t be mean to me, I’m trying 👉👈.”

The first and most obvious step in value investing is to pick a good company. I like to simplify it into a very memorable acronym: SRP – sustainable, reputable, profitable. A company that ticks the SRP box will undoubtedly do well. There is a reason Amazon, Facebook, and Google shares have soared through the years – and it’s pretty common sense why (i.e. sustainable, reputable, and profitable).

You don’t have to think too hard, just look into the companies that first pop into your mind when you think of these three traits. In Australia, some of my favorites are JB-Hifi and Wesfarmers.  I also recommend reading up on smaller companies, as some may be hidden gems.

By the way, these companies are also, in the very little chance they become insolvent, the ones that have the highest probability of returning your capital to you.

2. Do some research on their stock price

Once you have picked a company and are interested in investing, research on whether their stock price has good value. While experts like Buffett can make calculations on their own, it would be very difficult for individuals to do them without the proper financial training. However, several valuation companies exist such as Goldman Sachs and Morningstar that release their statements on whether the stock is over or underpriced. Their analyses would be good bases to see whether the stock may be a good one for you to invest in.

Check the historical charts and see how high or low it’s trading right now compared to the past. You could easily access all these data and graphs on your trading platform or even on a quick Google search. 

If you want to go the extra mile and look at some valuations yourself, I highly recommend Simply Wall St. It’s a platform that I personally use for my own research, and I find the charts and infographics extremely helpful.

3. Differentiate between investment and speculation

Do you guys know about the 2000 Dotcom bubble and the 2008 housing bubble? Or do you at least remember how they screwed up the economy BIG TIME? Whether you do or not, let me tell you the tl;dr version why they both ruined the economy – people went over their heads putting their money in tech (for the Dotcom bubble) and in real estate (for the housing bubble) without any real basis for either; leading to SIGNIFICANT losses when the bubbles finally burst.

Big crash in 1999-2000.

Let me explain the Dotcom bubble for you more specifically to illustrate (the housing  bubble happened in a very similar way):

From 1995-2000, when the internet was just in its starting stages, lots of new companies were popping up here and there and asking for funding by going public. Individuals and companies were so excited about the internet, that total investments into any company that had “.com” had risen by over 500% in the span of 5 years, even when some of these companies hadn’t even made profit yet or barely had anything in their balance sheets. Investors simply put in money due to the excitement surrounding the internet and potential of it, and also because they wanted to ride the wave and try to profit from all the Dotcom stocks going up.

Naturally, reality had to take its course – and by 2001, the bubble finally burst when the tech companies couldn’t offer a return to its investors and investors borrowed too much for investment and couldn’t pay back their debts. NASDAQ (the tech index) crashed by almost 80% (an investor with $1,000,000 would have lost $800,000).

These events are why I want you to understand the difference between investment and speculation. Investment means that the asset you are investing in and the price you’re paying – actually MAKES SENSE. It’s extremely simple logic when our emotions don’t play a part (even when the stock market is a very emotional game). Invest in value, not in your or the market’s excitement. Or if you really want to ride the trend and gain a bit, do so very carefully and set a stop-loss.

The crash took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover, by the way.

I just wanna go back, back to 1999.

 

With this, I hope you now understand why value investing works. It’s an investing style that has passed the test of time, and is sworn by by not only Warren Buffett, but also several other successful investing professionals.

Thank you for reading this article, and I hope you can take something away from it.

On a very related note, please read through my article on your 3 basic steps to stock investing, which will hopefully give you tips on improving your stock market research.

If you’re a finance noob like I was, chances are you have no idea to begin with stock investing. I’ll bet you that the moment you hear friends talking about Tesla going up again due to Elon’s crazy antics that you jump in and buy – only to have the stock sink back due a correction after heaps of you all impulse buy.

 

“Oops, didn’t think Doge would blow up solely because of my tweet.”

Well fortunately, you can fret no more. After years of reading books, studying finance, and experiencing the stock market, I am here to help you make your best, self-decided, stock-picking decisions!

  1. Do a little critical thinking

When it comes to handling money, I believe that people should be the decision-maker on where they invest the savings they worked so hard for. With more than 630,000 publicly-traded companies in the world (yes, that’s over 630,000 stocks you can pick from!), I know it’s extremely nerve-wrecking to take the responsibility of choosing where your money goes. 

However, let me just say… most of the time, even the most common of finance noobs have the most basic idea of what a good company is! 

When my friends ask me “what stocks should I invest in?”, the first question I ask them is: “what companies do you think would do well in the next few months/years?”

For example, when Covid first hit and all stocks crashed into Earth, I asked my friends what businesses they thought would recover most quickly. Most, if not all of them, said tech, online shopping, manufacturers of medical equipment, and essential companies such as groceries would do well. Guess what – they were completely right. Tech stocks such as Afterpay and Zip, online retailers such as Kogan, essential companies such as Woolworths and Coles, all thrived in the midst of the pandemic. 

While there is no harm in googling for advice from experts or from redditors (the latter of which I highly un-recommend), ultimately, you choose where your money goes. If you find yourself stressed or confused, my most basic stock-picking tip is also the easiest: choose companies you, yourself, can’t live without.

      2. Invest in value

Now that you have an idea of what kind of company you are interested in investing in, I’d like to talk to you about the value of a stock.

Imagine this question: What would you buy between a $1000 price tag on a dozen eggs vs. $10 for a kilo of bacon? 

“Maybe… have us both together?!”

Naturally, you’d answer “Duh I’m a pro at food, obviously bacon would be a better choice!”

And you know what, it’s not a trick question because I agree! The $1000 price tag on the eggs would be considered insane – because we know that the fair value of eggs to be less than $10 a dozen, based on supply and demand and economic activity.

This analogy of value investing is what I would recommend for stocks. Mastering the concept lets you understand whether the stock you want to buy is currently cheap or expensive.

Value investing is very widely used as an investment philosophy by many professional investors, including Warren Buffet. It is also the reason why large financial institutions look for financial analysts and researchers who specialize in calculating the intrinsic value of a stock. 

For you to go forward with value investing, you naturally have to know how to calculate the value of stocks

The most structured analysis in value investing is called “fundamental” analysis, where you as the investor, would actually study a company’s financial statements to understand how much assets (property, cash, etc.) and liabilities (debt) they have, what their investments are, how much dividends they may be able to give, etc. in order for you to determine whether their current market price is over or under-valued. Events surrounding the company such as their opportunity for growth, any legal problems, or changes in government regulations also affect the value of the company.

Now this all sounds hard to us noobs, so I would recommend checking out Simply Wall St, a stock investing website and tool that shows you whether a company is over or undervalued. They use the same metrics that research analysts use to back their analyses.

Additionally, what I would recommend for value investing could be summarised in a few steps, which could you read in this article I wrote on Warren Buffett’s value investing.

      3. Keep updated

Now that you know how to pick a stock and understand its price, this last part would be the easiest. With your money invested, it would now be your responsibility to decide when to sell. 

The stock market moves EVERYDAY, and more often than not, these changes are based on a company’s (for individual stocks), a country’s (for a whole index) or the world’s economic activities. For example, when I was trading in the ASX (Australia’s stock exchange), I sold the majority of my shares at the ASX’s peak in February and early March – when Covid-19 was starting to spread across the world.

February 2020 had the markets at all-time highs – and other people expected the market to go even higher. However, I knew I had to sell; I did this because from my research that it was only a matter of time until Australia would be affected and go into lockdown, which would consequently damage the economy.

I was right. By the third week of March, the ASX crashed alongside markets in the whole world. And because I pulled out my capital, I was able to buy shares at EXTREMELY low prices – in fact, my friends and I amusedly called it the “stock market super sale”. 

The first step to keeping updated is to read newspapers specifically for finances and business (I subscribe to the Australian Financial Review for Australian stocks, and Bloomberg for the rest of the world) and read everyday. In extremely volatile periods such as now with the Covid-19 affecting the economy, choose to buy stocks of companies that have good news surrounding them.

Investing
“Read me everydayyyy.”

As mentioned earlier, stocks in tech, consumer needs, and online shopping did especially well due to the Covid-19 positively affecting their balance sheets. Banks on the other hand, were struggling due to so many changes in government policies, interest rates, and defaults on loans. Naturally as time goes and circumstances change, the dynamics of the stock market will move alongside it.

Stock picking is a skill that once learned, will help you with investments for the rest of your life. The ultra-wealthy all have investments in the stock market alongside other financial instruments like real estate and private equity, and they (or their financial managers) constantly rebalance their investment portfolios as frequently as daily, monthly or quarterly, picking stocks to buy or sell depending on the investing environment.

I hope this article has taught you how to pick stocks for your own investments. Once you have picked, be wary about buying the stock when it is considered too expensive for what its value is. To supplement your knowledge in buying for value, I recommend once again my article on value investing.

This article on investments is the first of a series of three, introducing you to financial instruments that could make your money work for you

stocks and money

If all your money is either stuck in a savings account or a transactional account, this article is for YOU. However, even if you are familiar with stocks, bonds and ETFs, I highly recommend a read of this article so you may understand your stocks and bonds more.

I am also publishing my article for intermediate investors to introduce options, futures and swaps not too long from now, and I’m planning an advanced article on CFDs, MBSs, and REITs as well (you know it gets complicated when you start reading random letters). 

But for now, let me introduce you to the most basic, most invested financial instruments. 

1. Stocks 

To introduce you to stocks, let me start with a little story-telling.

Long long time ago, the Dutch people went on voyages in order to trade silk, coffee, spices, and wine. In order to help fund their growing expeditions, they decided to sell coupons to the public with the terms that the people who bought the coupons would be investors of the voyages, and the profit made from the expeditions would be distributed to the owners of the coupons accordingly.  As the expeditions grew and the news spread, the buying and selling of the coupons amongst the public became unavoidable, the prices of the coupons fluctuated depending on supply and demand. 

stock history
“We shall voyage and become billionaires!”

The people who went on voyages were all under the historical Dutch East India Company, and the selling of coupons became the first ever IPO (initial public offering). The coupons released by Dutch East India became the first ever publicly traded stock, and the profits that they distributed at the end of their voyages were what we now call “dividends”.

Despite all these happening back in the 1600s, the stock market we have now still works in exactly the same way. Companies try to raise more money by issuing stocks (coupons) to the public, and after this initial offering (the IPO), the owners of the newly issued stocks then enter the stock market in order to buy and sell these stocks to other interested investors. Hence, stocks are also called “shares”, because owning stocks entitles you to “shares” of a company’s profit when they distribute them to the stockholders. 

share of stock

Nowadays, most people trade stocks in order to profit from the movement of the stock’s price rather than for the dividends the companies give out. The company who originally issued the stock does not earn or lose from the movement of their stock price, as they only get the amount they raised from their IPO, but events surrounding the company may affect their stock price significantly. Seasoned investors thus tend to put their money into stocks that have good potential and high earnings in order to profit from a good dividend return and a higher stock price for when they sell off their shares.

If you want to know about Warren Buffett’s highly successful investing style, I highly recommend reading my article on the 3 steps to Warren Buffett’s value investing.

2. Bonds

Similar to stocks, bonds are also used by major companies and the government to raise funds. Like stocks, they are released through a public offering and may also be traded on a market (a secondhand bond market).

However, the main difference lies in ownership: owning a stock means a person partially owns a company while owning a bond means the person is lending money to the company or the government.

Interesting, hey? Now you just have to think whether you want to say “I OWN APPLE”, or, “I LEND MONEY TO APPLE”. I personally think both are pretty cool.

apple stock
Maybe I owe you money, maybe you own me… I don’t care because I’m still worth trillions more than you are!!!

When one puts money in a savings account, that person actually loans money to the bank – this is the reason why banks pay interest. In the case of a bond, you receive a set rate of interest as well, but unlike the banks, you have to hold the bond until the maturity date in order to get your entire investment back. This is the reason why bonds tend to pay more interest than banks do, as bonds can range from a year of holding to 10, and maybe 20 years. 

As an investor, the most important things you need to know about bonds are the interest rate, the length of time till maturity of the bond, and the credit rating of the bond. 

Bonds are a complex subject, so if you think they’re a good idea (I highly support that!), then YOU MUST visit my painfully-written article explaining more about how they work and where to buy them here.

3. ETFs

ETFs are the last in this beginner article, but one all financial experts would recommend to beginners. ETF is short for “exchange-traded fund”. Funds are essentially a basket of several financial instruments. In noob terms, if you went shopping and put 10 different meat items into your basket, finance people would call that a “meat fund”.

etf is a basket
“They fill me up and decide to call it a fund.”

As such in finance, we have funds that focus on stocks, corporate bonds, government bonds, and many more. Stock funds can even be broken down into “Tech funds”, “Consumer goods funds”, “Banking funds” and countless others. Bond funds can be broken down into long-term and short-term bonds, high-interest bonds, etc. “Exchange-traded” just means that you are able to buy and sell these funds on the stock market. 

ETFs are highly recommended due to the fact that they lessen your risk. In Finance, risk is described as the volatility of a stock, or how much a stock goes up or down. It has been mathematically proven that by diversifying the stocks you own, you lessen your exposure to risks such as industry-specific risks, management risks, location risks, and all other types of risk. As such, by investing in a fund of stocks rather than just one specific stock, you get the highest return for the least amount of risk. 

Now you may ask, “but but… you said there that risk is volatility and it means how much a stock moves. I want to go for higher returns!”

My friend, this is why financial experts recommend ETFs mostly to beginners – if you think you are ready to take on more risk for the chance of higher returns, then by all means, you are free to do so! Just remember the famous words of wisdom… don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

It is important to note that all ETFs are funds – but not all funds are ETFs. You will come across the terms mutual funds and hedge funds regularly while investing. These are funds you apply for directly with the institution that manages the funds, and they manage your money by distributing it proportionately to their own basket of financial instruments. ETFs only consist of funds that you can buy on the secondary market. This article introduces you to the different other types of funds.

Hope you enjoyed this article! I will be talking about Options, Futures, and Swaps and CFDs, MBSs, and REITs, in the next ones. Stay tuned!